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Concordia Elbląg vs Wasilków — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
1 – 0
Wasilków
Wasilków
4/21/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Concordia Elbląg57%
×Draw22%
Wasilków21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
2.00
Wasilków
1.13

Concordia Elbląg creates 77% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Wasilków
0.80

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Wasilków
2.71

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Wasilków+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Wasilków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
79%
Concordia Elbląg or Wasilków
78%
Draw or Wasilków
43%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
34%
Wasilków wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
86%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
59%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
32%
Wasilków 1+ goals
68%
Wasilków 2+ goals
31%
Wasilków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
73%
Wasilków (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Wasilków away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Wasilków defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Wasilków attack 0.80 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
57%
level
22%
Wasilków scores more
21%

Concordia Elbląg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Elbląg vs Wasilków

Concordia Elbląg beat Wasilków 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.