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Concordia Elbląg vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
1 – 1
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
5/27/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg37%
×Draw26%
Warta Sieradz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.35
Warta Sieradz
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
63%
Concordia Elbląg or Warta Sieradz
74%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
63%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
17%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
74%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
39%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
15%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
74%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
39%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
50%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
37%
level
26%
Warta Sieradz scores more
37%

Concordia Elbląg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Concordia Elbląg 1–1 Warta Sieradz

Concordia Elbląg and Warta Sieradz drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.