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Concordia Elbląg vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
0 – 2
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
4/24/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg39%
×Draw25%
Ursus Warszawa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.48
Ursus Warszawa
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
64%
Concordia Elbląg or Ursus Warszawa
75%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
61%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
19%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
77%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
43%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
19%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
76%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
41%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
52%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
39%
level
25%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
36%

Concordia Elbląg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Elbląg vs Ursus Warszawa

Ursus Warszawa beat Concordia Elbląg 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.