Concordia Elbląg 0–1 Legia Warszawa II

Concordia Elbląg

FT

0 – 1

Legia Warszawa II

10/3/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg31%

×Draw24%

Legia Warszawa II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia ElblągExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.61

Concordia Elbląg

1.31

Legia Warszawa II

1.61

Legia Warszawa II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

1.29

creates per match

1.77

1.45

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.29

Legia Warszawa II

1.77

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.45

Legia Warszawa II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Legia Warszawa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw

56%

Concordia Elbląg or Legia Warszawa II

76%

Draw or Legia Warszawa II

69%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

13%

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

73%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

38%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

14%

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals

80%

Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals

48%

Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

41%

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more

31%

level

24%

Legia Warszawa II scores more

44%

Legia Warszawa II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff