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Concordia Basel vs Muttenz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Muttenz
Muttenz
3/3/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Concordia Basel48%
×Draw22%
Muttenz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Basel
1.93
Muttenz
1.49

Concordia Basel creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Concordia Basel
1.85
Muttenz
1.80

allows per match

Concordia Basel
1.18
Muttenz
2.00

finishing

Concordia Basel+0.00on par
Muttenz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Basel ↓

Muttenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Concordia Basel or draw
70%
Concordia Basel or Muttenz
78%
Draw or Muttenz
52%

Winning margin

Concordia Basel wins by 2+
27%
Muttenz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Concordia Basel 1+ goals
85%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
57%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
30%
Muttenz 1+ goals
77%
Muttenz 2+ goals
44%
Muttenz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
62%
Muttenz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Basel at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Muttenz away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Basel attack 1.85 + Muttenz defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Muttenz attack 1.80 + Concordia Basel defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concordia Basel scores more
48%
level
22%
Muttenz scores more
30%

Concordia Basel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Concordia Basel 2–2 Muttenz

Concordia Basel and Muttenz drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.