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Concordia Basel vs Münsingen — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Münsingen
Münsingen
11/1/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Concordia Basel47%
×Draw23%
Münsingen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Basel
1.77
Münsingen
1.36

Concordia Basel creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 73 away

creates per match

Concordia Basel
1.85
Münsingen
1.55

allows per match

Concordia Basel
1.18
Münsingen
1.68

finishing

Concordia Basel+0.00on par
Münsingen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Basel ↓

Münsingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Concordia Basel or draw
70%
Concordia Basel or Münsingen
77%
Draw or Münsingen
53%

Winning margin

Concordia Basel wins by 2+
25%
Münsingen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Concordia Basel 1+ goals
83%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
53%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
26%
Münsingen 1+ goals
74%
Münsingen 2+ goals
39%
Münsingen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
61%
Münsingen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Basel at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Münsingen away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.68 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Basel attack 1.85 + Münsingen defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

Münsingen attack 1.55 + Concordia Basel defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Concordia Basel scores more
47%
level
23%
Münsingen scores more
30%

Concordia Basel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Concordia Basel 1–2 Münsingen

Münsingen beat Concordia Basel 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.