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Concordia Basel vs Langenthal — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Langenthal
Langenthal
3/11/20261. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Concordia Basel48%
×Draw23%
Langenthal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Basel
1.82
Langenthal
1.35

Concordia Basel creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

Concordia Basel
1.85
Langenthal
1.53

allows per match

Concordia Basel
1.18
Langenthal
1.79

finishing

Concordia Basel+0.00on par
Langenthal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Basel ↓

Langenthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Concordia Basel or draw
71%
Concordia Basel or Langenthal
77%
Draw or Langenthal
52%

Winning margin

Concordia Basel wins by 2+
27%
Langenthal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Concordia Basel 1+ goals
84%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
54%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
27%
Langenthal 1+ goals
74%
Langenthal 2+ goals
39%
Langenthal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
63%
Langenthal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Basel at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Langenthal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Basel attack 1.85 + Langenthal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.82

Langenthal attack 1.53 + Concordia Basel defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concordia Basel scores more
48%
level
23%
Langenthal scores more
29%

Concordia Basel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Basel vs Langenthal

Langenthal beat Concordia Basel 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 11, 2026.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.