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Concorde vs Gourel Sangue — Premier League 2020

Concorde
Concorde
FT
6 – 2
Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
1/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Concorde66%
×Draw19%
Gourel Sangue15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concorde
2.17
Gourel Sangue
0.91

Concorde creates 138% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 13 away

creates per match

Concorde
1.12
Gourel Sangue
0.77

allows per match

Concorde
1.04
Gourel Sangue
3.23

finishing

Concorde+0.00on par
Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concorde ↓

Gourel Sangue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Concorde or draw
85%
Concorde or Gourel Sangue
81%
Draw or Gourel Sangue
34%

Winning margin

Concorde wins by 2+
42%
Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Concorde 1+ goals
89%
Concorde 2+ goals
64%
Concorde 3+ goals
36%
Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
60%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
23%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Concorde (draw refunded)
82%
Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concorde at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concorde attack 1.12 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.17

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Concorde defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Concorde scores more
66%
level
19%
Gourel Sangue scores more
15%

Concorde at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Concorde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Concorde 6–2 Gourel Sangue

Concorde beat Gourel Sangue 6-2 in Premier League on January 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.