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Concón National vs Linares Unido — Segunda División 2020

Concón National
Concón National
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Unido
Linares Unido
3/16/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Atlético Municipal de Concón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Concón National40%
×Draw28%
Linares Unido33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concón National
1.27
Linares Unido
1.13

Concón National creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 55 away

creates per match

Concón National
1.26
Linares Unido
1.07

allows per match

Concón National
1.19
Linares Unido
1.27

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par
Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Linares Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Concón National or draw
67%
Concón National or Linares Unido
72%
Draw or Linares Unido
60%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+
18%
Linares Unido wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals
72%
Concón National 2+ goals
36%
Concón National 3+ goals
14%
Linares Unido 1+ goals
68%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
31%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)
55%
Linares Unido (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Concón National scores more
40%
level
28%
Linares Unido scores more
33%

Concón National at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concón National vs Linares Unido

Linares Unido beat Concón National 1-0 in Segunda División on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atlético Municipal de Concón in Concón.