Concón National 1–2 Concepción: Result & Stats

Concón National

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Concepción

C. Astroza 50'

S. Silva 90+3'

B. Valdivia 2'

7/27/2024

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Concón National38%

×Draw27%

Concepción35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concón NationalExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

Concón National

1.29

Concepción

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 59 away

1.26

creates per match

1.27

1.19

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Concón National

1.26

Concepción

1.27

allows per match

Concón National

1.19

Concepción

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Concón National or draw

65%

Concón National or Concepción

73%

Draw or Concepción

62%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+

17%

Concepción wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals

72%

Concón National 2+ goals

37%

Concón National 3+ goals

14%

Concepción 1+ goals

71%

Concepción 2+ goals

35%

Concepción 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)

52%

Concepción (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Concepción attack 1.27 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Concón National scores more

38%

level

27%

Concepción scores more

35%

Concón National at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

B. Valdivia

46'

J. Retamales← K. Valenzuela

50'

C. Astroza

64'

F. Núñez← U. Ojeda

69'

C. Escobar← G. Vargas

69'

M. Lopes← B. Valdivia

74'

M. Leiva← R. Fuenzalida

80'

D. Acevedo← L. Béjar

82'

D. Vera← C. Astroza

82'

G. Davis← C. Vega

89'

R. Zúñiga← C. Alba

90+3'

S. Silva

Concón

Concepción

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Astroza

Manager: J. Orellana

46'▲J. Retamales←▼K. Valenzuela

74'▲M. Leiva←▼R. Fuenzalida

82'▲D. Vera←▼C. Astroza

82'▲G. Davis←▼C. Vega

89'▲R. Zúñiga←▼C. Alba

Concón National substitutes

RetamalesLeivaVeraDavisZúñigaGuzmánPizarro

Manager: M. Suárez

64'▲F. Núñez←▼U. Ojeda

69'▲C. Escobar←▼G. Vargas

69'▲M. Lopes←▼B. Valdivia

80'▲D. Acevedo←▼L. Béjar

Concepción substitutes

NúñezEscobarLopesAcevedoZambranoSubiabreTorres

Segunda División: Concón National 1–2 Concepción

Concepción beat Concón National 2-1 in Segunda División on July 27, 2024.

Goals: B. Valdivia (2'), C. Astroza (50'), S. Silva (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.

Concón National vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Concón National 1–2 Concepción