Concepción 0–2 Nublense: Result & Stats

Concepción

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nublense

D. Sanhueza 88'

G. Graciani 29'

3/6/2026

Primera División · Round 6Estadio Ester Roa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Concepción36%

×Draw26%

Nublense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.35

Concepción

1.31

Nublense

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 83 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.57

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Concepción

1.29

Nublense

1.13

allows per match

Concepción

1.57

Nublense

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par

Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Concepción or draw

62%

Concepción or Nublense

74%

Draw or Nublense

64%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+

16%

Nublense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals

73%

Concepción 2+ goals

38%

Concepción 3+ goals

14%

Nublense 1+ goals

74%

Nublense 2+ goals

39%

Nublense 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)

49%

Nublense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.29 + Nublense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nublense attack 1.13 + Concepción defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Concepción scores more

36%

level

26%

Nublense scores more

38%

Nublense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Bosso Torres

Nublense · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

Nelson Sepúlveda

29'

G. Graciani

34'

Jovany Campusano

46'

Y. Rodriguez← N. Sepulveda

46'

A. Jara← M. Davila Carvajal

46'

E. Espinoza← I. S. Mesias Gonzalez

47'

Manuel Rivera

60'

Ariel Cáceres

69'

M. Plaza← G. Avalos

69'

D. Sanhueza← G. Graciani

75'

F. Rami← I. Jeraldino

77'

Lorenzo Reyes

82'

A. Gillard← L. Valencia Rossel

83'

A. Valdes← F. Ovelar

88'

D. Sanhueza

89'

Diego Sanhueza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ConcepciónNublense

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots14

9Corners4

13Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target6

6Off Target7

0Blocked1

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

448Total Passes349

362Accurate Passes263

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1