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Concepción vs Deportes Vallenar — Segunda División 2020

Concepción
Concepción
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Vallenar
Deportes Vallenar
2/13/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Concepción51%
×Draw26%
Deportes Vallenar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concepción
1.49
Deportes Vallenar
0.88

Concepción creates 69% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 11 away

creates per match

Concepción
1.25
Deportes Vallenar
0.64

allows per match

Concepción
1.12
Deportes Vallenar
1.73

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par
Deportes Vallenar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Deportes Vallenar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Concepción or draw
78%
Concepción or Deportes Vallenar
74%
Draw or Deportes Vallenar
49%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+
26%
Deportes Vallenar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals
77%
Concepción 2+ goals
44%
Concepción 3+ goals
19%
Deportes Vallenar 1+ goals
59%
Deportes Vallenar 2+ goals
22%
Deportes Vallenar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)
70%
Deportes Vallenar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

Deportes Vallenar away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.25 + Deportes Vallenar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.49

Deportes Vallenar attack 0.64 + Concepción defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Concepción scores more
51%
level
26%
Deportes Vallenar scores more
22%

Concepción at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Concepción 0–2 Deportes Vallenar

Deportes Vallenar beat Concepción 2-0 in Segunda División on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.