Concepción 0–1 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Concepción

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Limache

H. Ramírez 33'

9/14/2022

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Concepción35%

×Draw29%

Deportes Limache37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.15

Concepción

1.11

Deportes Limache

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 35 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

1.12

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Concepción

1.25

Deportes Limache

1.17

allows per match

Concepción

1.12

Deportes Limache

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Concepción or draw

63%

Concepción or Deportes Limache

71%

Draw or Deportes Limache

65%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+

14%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals

67%

Concepción 2+ goals

30%

Concepción 3+ goals

10%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

68%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

32%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)

49%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.25 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Deportes Limache attack 1.17 + Concepción defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Concepción scores more

35%

level

29%

Deportes Limache scores more

37%

Deportes Limache at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

H. Ramírez

46'

D. Huerta← B. Inostroza

55'

M. Lagos← C. Fernández

58'

A. Herrera← D. Vera

64'

M. Flores← H. Rojo

72'

D. Henríquez← J. Verdugo

90+2'

S. Torres← C. Vargas

Concepción

Deportes

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Del Solar

55'▲M. Lagos←▼C. Fernández

72'▲D. Henríquez←▼J. Verdugo

90+2'▲S. Torres←▼C. Vargas

Concepción substitutes

LagosHenríquezTorresMontecinosJelvezMolinaToledo

Manager: M. Ramírez

46'▲D. Huerta←▼B. Inostroza

58'▲A. Herrera←▼D. Vera

64'▲M. Flores←▼H. Rojo

Deportes Limache substitutes

HuertaHerreraFloresFuentesPinoToroMorales