Concepción 0–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Concepción

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

A. Madrid 68'

4/5/2026

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Ester Roa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Concepción31%

×Draw26%

Colo Colo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.48

Concepción

1.20

Colo Colo

1.48

Colo Colo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 115 away

1.29

creates per match

1.39

1.57

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Concepción

1.29

Colo Colo

1.39

allows per match

Concepción

1.57

Colo Colo

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Concepción or draw

56%

Concepción or Colo Colo

74%

Draw or Colo Colo

69%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+

13%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals

70%

Concepción 2+ goals

34%

Concepción 3+ goals

12%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

77%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

43%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)

41%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.29 + Colo Colo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Colo Colo attack 1.39 + Concepción defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Concepción scores more

31%

level

26%

Colo Colo scores more

44%

Colo Colo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Vidal

Colo Colo · D

8.3

Match Events

29'

Jonathan Villagra

40'

Diego Carrasco

46'

L. Hernandez← V. Mendez

55'

Diego Ulloa

60'

E. Espinoza← L. Valencia Rossel

61'

J. Rojas← M. Cavalleri

67'

Ethan Espinoza

68'

A. Madrid

70'

F. Marchant← T. Alarcon

72'

Nelson Sepúlveda

76'

A. Gillard← D. Carrasco

81'

B. Vejar← N. Rodriguez

81'

J. Henriquez← A. Jara

84'

85'

89'

89'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ConcepciónColo

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots8

0.19Expected Goals (xG)0.67

5Corners5

8Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots8

1On Target4

5Off Target3

2Blocked1

2Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

243Total Passes511

163Accurate Passes429

67%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Concepción vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Concepción 1-0 in Primera División on April 5, 2026.

Goals: A. Madrid (68').

Colo Colo controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ester Roa in Concepcion.

Concepción vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Concepción vs Colo Colo