Concepción 1–1 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Concepción

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cobresal

J. Henriquez 90'

S. Pino 81'

2/20/2026

Primera División · Round 4Municipal de Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Concepción41%

×Draw25%

Cobresal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Concepción

1.48

Cobresal

1.31

Concepción creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 104 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

1.57

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Concepción

1.29

Cobresal

1.06

allows per match

Concepción

1.57

Cobresal

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par

Cobresal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Concepción or draw

66%

Concepción or Cobresal

75%

Draw or Cobresal

59%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+

20%

Cobresal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals

77%

Concepción 2+ goals

43%

Concepción 3+ goals

19%

Cobresal 1+ goals

73%

Cobresal 2+ goals

38%

Cobresal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)

55%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.66 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.29 + Cobresal defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cobresal attack 1.06 + Concepción defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Concepción scores more

41%

level

25%

Cobresal scores more

34%

Concepción at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Valencia Rossel

Concepción · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

Christian Moreno

45+6'

Carlos EscobarMissed penalty

45+3'

José Tiznado

45+3'

Alejandro Santander

46'

G. Pacheco← B. Valenzuela

46'

S. Pino← M. Sepulveda

63'

E. Espinoza← C. Escobar

65'

C. Suarez← F. Grillo

74'

E. Valencia← J. Brea

80'

M. Sandoval← M. Davila Carvajal

80'

A. Jara← L. Valencia Rossel

80'

A. Gillard← I. S. Mesias Gonzalez

81'

S. Pino↳ G. Pacheco

85'

Steffan PinoGoal confirmed

85'

J. Fuentes← B. A. Carvallo U.

90+2'

Guillermo Pacheco

90'

J. Henriquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ConcepciónCobresal

Overview

66%Possession34%

20Total Shots9

9Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots9

6On Target3

8Off Target3

6Blocked3

12Inside Box3

8Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

507Total Passes260

436Accurate Passes188

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls13

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Primera División: Concepción 1–1 Cobresal

Concepción and Cobresal drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 20, 2026.

Goals: S. Pino (81'), J. Henriquez (90').

Concepción controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Municipal de Collao in Concepcion.

Concepción vs Cobresal — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Concepción 1–1 Cobresal