Concepción 2–1 Antofagasta: Result & Stats

Concepción

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Antofagasta

J. Larrivey 38' (pen), 34'

A. Souper 27' (pen)

11/18/2025

Primera B · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsEstadio Ester Roa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Concepción47%

×Draw26%

Antofagasta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchAntofagasta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.01

Concepción

1.46

Antofagasta

1.01

Concepción creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 57 away

1.44

creates per match

1.12

0.89

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Concepción

1.44

Antofagasta

1.12

allows per match

Concepción

0.89

Antofagasta

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Antofagasta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Concepción or draw

74%

Concepción or Antofagasta

74%

Draw or Antofagasta

53%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+

23%

Antofagasta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals

77%

Concepción 2+ goals

43%

Concepción 3+ goals

18%

Antofagasta 1+ goals

64%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

27%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)

64%

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.44 + Antofagasta defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Antofagasta attack 1.12 + Concepción defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Concepción scores more

47%

level

26%

Antofagasta scores more

26%

Concepción at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. SouperPenalty

34'

J. Larrivey

38'

J. LarriveyPenalty

52'

B. Viveros

55'

J. D. Bandez← M. Fredes

56'

56'

58'

69'

70'

71'

78'

S. Hinojosa← A. Souper

78'

N. Astete← M. Sandoval

90+5'

S. Silva

90+1'

F. Nunez← J. Ovalle

90+1'

C. Escobar← B. Valdivia

Concepción

Antofagasta

25

4

24

31

5

11

▼

Valdivia

19

▼

Ovalle

27

Sepulveda

7

▼

Gillard

32

⚽2

Larrivey

16

▼

12

16

3

31

5

33

10

⚽

▼

Souper

21

Manzano

15

Baez

9

▼

Hurtado

23

▼

Fredes

Manager: Manuel Antonio Suárez Jiménez

55'▲J. D. Bandez←▼M. Fredes

71'▲I. Jara←▼B. Hurtado

78'▲S. Hinojosa←▼A. Souper

Concepción substitutes

1Cisternas7Bravo30Jara19Larenas11Bandez26Hinojosa25Siegler

Manager: Hernán Álex Peña González

69'▲U. Ojeda←▼A. Gillard

78'▲N. Astete←▼M. Sandoval

90+1'▲F. Nunez←▼J. Ovalle

90+1'▲C. Escobar←▼B. Valdivia

Antofagasta substitutes

6Astete20Diego1Munoz10Nunez22L’Huillier23Ojeda9Escobar

Primera B: Concepción 2–1 Antofagasta

Concepción beat Antofagasta 2-1 in Primera B on November 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Souper (27' pen), J. Larrivey (34', 38' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Ester Roa.

Concepción vs Antofagasta — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Concepción 2–1 Antofagasta