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Concarneau vs Valenciennes — Ligue 2 2018

Concarneau
Concarneau
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
2/3/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau38%
×Draw27%
Valenciennes36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concarneau
1.31
Valenciennes
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

creates per match

Concarneau
1.21
Valenciennes
0.90

allows per match

Concarneau
1.63
Valenciennes
1.41

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw
64%
Concarneau or Valenciennes
73%
Draw or Valenciennes
62%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+
17%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals
73%
Concarneau 2+ goals
38%
Concarneau 3+ goals
14%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
72%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
36%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)
52%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Concarneau scores more
38%
level
27%
Valenciennes scores more
36%

Concarneau at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concarneau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Concarneau 1–0 Valenciennes

Concarneau beat Valenciennes 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Lorient.