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Concarneau vs Saint-Malo — Coupe de France 2018

Concarneau
Concarneau
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saint-Malo
Saint-Malo
12/8/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Guy Piriou (Concarneau)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Concarneau39%
×Draw23%
Saint-Malo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concarneau
1.71
Saint-Malo
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Concarneau
1.75
Saint-Malo
1.33

allows per match

Concarneau
2.00
Saint-Malo
1.67

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par
Saint-Malo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Saint-Malo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw
62%
Concarneau or Saint-Malo
77%
Draw or Saint-Malo
61%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+
20%
Saint-Malo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals
82%
Concarneau 2+ goals
51%
Concarneau 3+ goals
24%
Saint-Malo 1+ goals
81%
Saint-Malo 2+ goals
50%
Saint-Malo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)
51%
Saint-Malo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Saint-Malo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.75 + Saint-Malo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Saint-Malo attack 1.33 + Concarneau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concarneau scores more
39%
level
23%
Saint-Malo scores more
38%

Concarneau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concarneau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concarneau vs Saint-Malo

Concarneau beat Saint-Malo 2-0 in Coupe de France on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Guy Piriou (Concarneau).