Concarneau 1–2 PAU: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Concarneau

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

PAU

11/28/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau39%

×Draw25%

PAU36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcarneauExpected goals in this matchPAU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.38

Concarneau

1.43

PAU

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

1.21

creates per match

1.14

1.63

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Concarneau

1.21

PAU

1.14

allows per match

Concarneau

1.63

PAU

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par

PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

PAU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw

64%

Concarneau or PAU

75%

Draw or PAU

61%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+

18%

PAU wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals

76%

Concarneau 2+ goals

42%

Concarneau 3+ goals

17%

PAU 1+ goals

75%

PAU 2+ goals

40%

PAU 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)

52%

PAU (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

PAU attack 1.14 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concarneau scores more

39%

level

25%

PAU scores more

36%

Concarneau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concarneau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff