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Concarneau vs Nantes — Coupe de France 2018

Concarneau
Concarneau
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Nantes
Nantesadvanced
Y. Soukouna 74'
A. Samoura 45' (pen)
N. Cozza 18' (OG)
M. Abline 58', 51'
F. Centonze 38'
Y. El Arabi 23'
B. Deuff 15'
12/21/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Guy Piriou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Concarneau24%
×Draw21%
Nantes55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concarneau
1.32
Nantes
2.10

Nantes creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Concarneau
1.75
Nantes
2.20

allows per match

Concarneau
2.00
Nantes
0.90

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par
Nantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw
45%
Concarneau or Nantes
79%
Draw or Nantes
76%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+
10%
Nantes wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals
73%
Concarneau 2+ goals
38%
Concarneau 3+ goals
15%
Nantes 1+ goals
88%
Nantes 2+ goals
62%
Nantes 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)
30%
Nantes (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Nantes away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.75 + Nantes defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nantes attack 2.20 + Concarneau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Concarneau scores more
24%
level
21%
Nantes scores more
55%

Nantes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. AblineNantesNantes · F
10.0

Match Events

15'
B. Deuff↳ M. Abline
18'
N. CozzaOwn goal
23'
Y. El Arabi↳ M. Abline
38'
F. Centonze
45+2'
Kelvin Amian
45'
A. SamouraPenalty
51'
M. Abline↳ F. Centonze
57'
S. Inquel← R. Amede Kabongo
58'
M. Abline↳ Y. El Arabi
65'
G. Gbelle← D. Seba
66'
O. Daf← J. Tell
69'
J. Lepenant← D. Tabibou
73'
Guillaume Jannez
74'
Y. Soukouna↳ O. Daf
75'
Deiver Machado
81'
Y. El Khemiri← M. Picouleau
81'
F. Coquelin← Y. El Arabi
82'
G. Tutu← B. Etcheverria
89'
Fabien Centonze
90+5'
M. Acapandie← F. Centonze

Possession

Concarneau: 44Nantes: 5644%Concarneau

Shots

Concarneau: 14Nantes: 814Concarneau

Pass accuracy

Concarneau: 79Nantes: 8050%Concarneau

Statistics

ConcarneauNantes
Overview
44%Possession56%
14Total Shots8
2Corners0
9Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots8
5On Target6
8Off Target1
1Blocked1
10Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
375Total Passes514
298Accurate Passes411
79%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Concarneau vs Nantes

Nantes beat Concarneau 5-3 in Coupe de France on December 21, 2025.

Goals: B. Deuff (15'), N. Cozza (18' o.g.), Y. El Arabi (23'), F. Centonze (38'), A. Samoura (45' pen), M. Abline (51', 58'), Y. Soukouna (74').

Nantes controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Guy Piriou in Concarneau.