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Concarneau vs Lorient — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Concarneau
Concarneau
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Lorient
Lorient
T. Lebeau 65'
F. El Khoumisti 45+4', 2'
A. Aouchiche 79' (pen)
S. Soumano 50'
E. J. Kroupi 36'
7/15/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Concarneau29%
×Draw23%
Lorient47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concarneau
1.35
Lorient
1.77

Lorient creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Concarneau
1.71
Lorient
1.67

allows per match

Concarneau
1.86
Lorient
1.00

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par
Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw
53%
Concarneau or Lorient
77%
Draw or Lorient
71%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+
13%
Lorient wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals
74%
Concarneau 2+ goals
39%
Concarneau 3+ goals
15%
Lorient 1+ goals
83%
Lorient 2+ goals
53%
Lorient 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)
38%
Lorient (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.71 + Lorient defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lorient attack 1.67 + Concarneau defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Concarneau scores more
29%
level
23%
Lorient scores more
47%

Lorient at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
F. El Khoumisti
36'
E. J. Kroupi
45+4'
F. El Khoumisti
50'
S. Soumano
65'
T. Lebeau
79'
A. AouchichePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Concarneau 3–3 Lorient

Concarneau and Lorient drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2023.

Goals: F. El Khoumisti (2', 45+4'), E. J. Kroupi (36'), S. Soumano (50'), T. Lebeau (65'), A. Aouchiche (79' pen).