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Concarneau vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Concarneau
Concarneau
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Grenoble
Grenoble
12/19/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau36%
×Draw27%
Grenoble37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concarneau
1.25
Grenoble
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 145 away

creates per match

Concarneau
1.21
Grenoble
0.94

allows per match

Concarneau
1.63
Grenoble
1.30

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw
63%
Concarneau or Grenoble
73%
Draw or Grenoble
64%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+
16%
Grenoble wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals
71%
Concarneau 2+ goals
36%
Concarneau 3+ goals
13%
Grenoble 1+ goals
72%
Grenoble 2+ goals
37%
Grenoble 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)
49%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Concarneau scores more
36%
level
27%
Grenoble scores more
37%

Grenoble at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Concarneau 0–3 Grenoble

Grenoble beat Concarneau 3-0 in Ligue 2 on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient.