Concarneau 4–3 Dunkerque: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Concarneau

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Dunkerque

10/7/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau37%

×Draw26%

Dunkerque37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcarneauExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.33

Concarneau

1.34

Dunkerque

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

1.21

creates per match

1.03

1.63

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Concarneau

1.21

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Concarneau

1.63

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw

63%

Concarneau or Dunkerque

74%

Draw or Dunkerque

63%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+

17%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals

74%

Concarneau 2+ goals

39%

Concarneau 3+ goals

15%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

74%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

38%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)

50%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Concarneau scores more

37%

level

26%

Dunkerque scores more

37%

Concarneau at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Concarneau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff