Concarneau 2–1 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Concarneau

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ajaccio

10/28/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau37%

×Draw28%

Ajaccio36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcarneauExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Concarneau

1.21

Ajaccio

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 107 away

1.21

creates per match

0.75

1.63

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Concarneau

1.21

Ajaccio

0.75

allows per match

Concarneau

1.63

Ajaccio

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw

64%

Concarneau or Ajaccio

72%

Draw or Ajaccio

63%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+

16%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals

70%

Concarneau 2+ goals

34%

Concarneau 3+ goals

12%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

70%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

33%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)

51%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + Ajaccio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ajaccio attack 0.75 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Concarneau scores more

37%

level

28%

Ajaccio scores more

36%

Concarneau at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Concarneau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff