Comunicaciones 0–0 Villa Dalmine: Result & Stats

Comunicaciones

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Dalmine

7/14/2026

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 25Alfredo Ramos stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Comunicaciones39%

×Draw31%

Villa Dalmine30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComunicacionesExpected goals in this matchVilla Dalmine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.88

Comunicaciones

1.06

Villa Dalmine

0.88

Comunicaciones creates 20% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 54 away

1.16

creates per match

0.81

0.95

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Comunicaciones

1.16

Villa Dalmine

0.81

allows per match

Comunicaciones

0.95

Villa Dalmine

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Villa Dalmine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Villa Dalmine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw

70%

Comunicaciones or Villa Dalmine

69%

Draw or Villa Dalmine

61%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

16%

Villa Dalmine wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

65%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

29%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

9%

Villa Dalmine 1+ goals

59%

Villa Dalmine 2+ goals

22%

Villa Dalmine 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

57%

Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 145 matches

Villa Dalmine away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.16 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Villa Dalmine attack 0.81 + Comunicaciones defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Comunicaciones scores more

39%

level

31%

Villa Dalmine scores more

30%

Comunicaciones at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

38'

58'

61'

63'

63'

M. Brambillo← T. Rolon

71'

P. Ruiz← E. Ramirez

75'

M. Britos← L. Gamba

75'

V. Carlucci← T. Ponzo

82'

J. Barroso← C. Vazquez

88'

E. Ramon← V. Gargiulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff