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Comunicaciones vs Municipal — Liga Nacional 2019

Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Municipal
Municipal
4/20/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 20Estadio Cementos Progreso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

Comunicaciones44%
×Draw28%
Municipal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunicaciones
1.31
Municipal
0.98

Comunicaciones creates 34% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 161 away

creates per match

Comunicaciones
1.70
Municipal
1.10

allows per match

Comunicaciones
0.85
Municipal
0.93

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par
Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw
72%
Comunicaciones or Municipal
72%
Draw or Municipal
56%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+
20%
Municipal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals
73%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
38%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
14%
Municipal 1+ goals
62%
Municipal 2+ goals
26%
Municipal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
61%
Municipal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 156 matches

Municipal away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.70 + Municipal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.31

Municipal attack 1.10 + Comunicaciones defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Comunicaciones scores more
44%
level
28%
Municipal scores more
28%

Comunicaciones at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunicaciones vs Municipal

Comunicaciones beat Municipal 1-0 in Liga Nacional on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Cementos Progreso in Ciudad de Guatemala.