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Comunicaciones vs Malacateco — Liga Nacional 2019

Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malacateco
Malacateco
9/17/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 10Estadio Cementos Progreso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Comunicaciones58%
×Draw24%
Malacateco18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunicaciones
1.66
Malacateco
0.81

Comunicaciones creates 105% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 145 away

creates per match

Comunicaciones
1.70
Malacateco
0.78

allows per match

Comunicaciones
0.85
Malacateco
1.62

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par
Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Malacateco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw
82%
Comunicaciones or Malacateco
76%
Draw or Malacateco
42%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+
32%
Malacateco wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals
81%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
49%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
23%
Malacateco 1+ goals
56%
Malacateco 2+ goals
19%
Malacateco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
76%
Malacateco (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 156 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.70 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Comunicaciones defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Comunicaciones scores more
58%
level
24%
Malacateco scores more
18%

Comunicaciones at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunicaciones vs Malacateco

Comunicaciones beat Malacateco 1-0 in Liga Nacional on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Cementos Progreso in Ciudad de Guatemala.