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Comunicaciones vs Fénix — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fénix
Fénix
3/19/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 8Estadio Alfredo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Comunicaciones43%
×Draw30%
Fénix27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunicaciones
1.19
Fénix
0.87

Comunicaciones creates 37% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 126 away

creates per match

Comunicaciones
1.16
Fénix
0.79

allows per match

Comunicaciones
0.95
Fénix
1.22

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par
Fénix+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Fénix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw
73%
Comunicaciones or Fénix
70%
Draw or Fénix
57%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+
19%
Fénix wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals
70%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
33%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
12%
Fénix 1+ goals
58%
Fénix 2+ goals
22%
Fénix 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
62%
Fénix (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 145 matches

Fénix away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.16 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fénix attack 0.79 + Comunicaciones defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Comunicaciones scores more
43%
level
30%
Fénix scores more
27%

Comunicaciones at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunicaciones vs Fénix

Comunicaciones and Fénix drew 1-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Ramos in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.