Comunicaciones 4–1 Deportivo Laferrere

Comunicaciones

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Laferrere

2/21/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 4Estadio Alfredo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Comunicaciones43%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Laferrere28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComunicacionesExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Laferrere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

Comunicaciones

1.23

Deportivo Laferrere

0.93

Comunicaciones creates 32% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 54 away

1.16

creates per match

0.91

0.95

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Comunicaciones

1.16

Deportivo Laferrere

0.91

allows per match

Comunicaciones

0.95

Deportivo Laferrere

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Deportivo Laferrere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw

72%

Comunicaciones or Deportivo Laferrere

71%

Draw or Deportivo Laferrere

57%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

71%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

35%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals

24%

Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 145 matches

Deportivo Laferrere away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.16 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Laferrere attack 0.91 + Comunicaciones defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Comunicaciones scores more

43%

level

29%

Deportivo Laferrere scores more

28%

Comunicaciones at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff