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Sagrada Esperança vs Académica do Soyo — Girabola 2012

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
1 – 0
Académica do Soyo
Académica do Soyo
4/21/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 8Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sagrada Esperança42%
×Draw32%
Académica do Soyo26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.07
Académica do Soyo
0.76

Sagrada Esperança creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.15
Académica do Soyo
0.83

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.70
Académica do Soyo
1.00

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Académica do Soyo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Académica do Soyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
74%
Sagrada Esperança or Académica do Soyo
68%
Draw or Académica do Soyo
58%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
17%
Académica do Soyo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
66%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
29%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
9%
Académica do Soyo 1+ goals
53%
Académica do Soyo 2+ goals
18%
Académica do Soyo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
62%
Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Académica do Soyo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.15 + Académica do Soyo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Académica do Soyo attack 0.83 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
42%
level
32%
Académica do Soyo scores more
26%

Sagrada Esperança at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 1–0 Académica do Soyo

Sagrada Esperança beat Académica do Soyo 1-0 in Girabola on April 21, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão.