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Comunal Cabrero vs Rangers de Talca — Copa Chile 2019

Comunal Cabrero
Comunal Cabrero
FT
0 – 10
HT: 0 – 6
Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
6/23/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Comunal Cabrero16%
×Draw18%
Rangers de Talca67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunal Cabrero
1.13
Rangers de Talca
2.50

Rangers de Talca creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Comunal Cabrero
0.75
Rangers de Talca
1.50

allows per match

Comunal Cabrero
3.50
Rangers de Talca
1.50

finishing

Comunal Cabrero+0.00on par
Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunal Cabrero ↓

Rangers de Talca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Comunal Cabrero or draw
33%
Comunal Cabrero or Rangers de Talca
82%
Draw or Rangers de Talca
84%

Winning margin

Comunal Cabrero wins by 2+
6%
Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Comunal Cabrero 1+ goals
68%
Comunal Cabrero 2+ goals
31%
Comunal Cabrero 3+ goals
11%
Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
92%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
71%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Comunal Cabrero (draw refunded)
19%
Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunal Cabrero at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunal Cabrero attack 0.75 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rangers de Talca attack 1.50 + Comunal Cabrero defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Comunal Cabrero scores more
16%
level
18%
Rangers de Talca scores more
67%

Rangers de Talca at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunal Cabrero vs Rangers de Talca

Rangers de Talca beat Comunal Cabrero 10-0 in Copa Chile on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.