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Comunal Cabrero vs Nublense — Copa Chile 2019

Comunal Cabrero
Comunal Cabrero
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nublense
Nublense
4/9/2023Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Municipal de Monte Águila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Comunal Cabrero13%
×Draw18%
Nublense69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunal Cabrero
0.93
Nublense
2.37

Nublense creates 155% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

creates per match

Comunal Cabrero
0.75
Nublense
1.24

allows per match

Comunal Cabrero
3.50
Nublense
1.10

finishing

Comunal Cabrero+0.00on par
Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunal Cabrero ↓

Nublense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Comunal Cabrero or draw
31%
Comunal Cabrero or Nublense
82%
Draw or Nublense
87%

Winning margin

Comunal Cabrero wins by 2+
4%
Nublense wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Comunal Cabrero 1+ goals
61%
Comunal Cabrero 2+ goals
24%
Comunal Cabrero 3+ goals
7%
Nublense 1+ goals
91%
Nublense 2+ goals
68%
Nublense 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Comunal Cabrero (draw refunded)
16%
Nublense (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunal Cabrero at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunal Cabrero attack 0.75 + Nublense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Nublense attack 1.24 + Comunal Cabrero defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Comunal Cabrero scores more
13%
level
18%
Nublense scores more
69%

Nublense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunal Cabrero vs Nublense

Nublense beat Comunal Cabrero 3-0 in Copa Chile on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Monte Águila in Monte Águila.