Comuna Recea 1–0 Universitatea Cluj: Result & Stats

Comuna Recea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universitatea Cluj

3/8/2021

Liga II · Round 18Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea47%

×Draw23%

Universitatea Cluj30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comuna ReceaExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.36

Comuna Recea

1.75

Universitatea Cluj

1.36

Comuna Recea creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

2.53

creates per match

1.59

1.13

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Comuna Recea

2.53

Universitatea Cluj

1.59

allows per match

Comuna Recea

1.13

Universitatea Cluj

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

Universitatea Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw

70%

Comuna Recea or Universitatea Cluj

77%

Draw or Universitatea Cluj

53%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+

25%

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals

83%

Comuna Recea 2+ goals

52%

Comuna Recea 3+ goals

25%

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

74%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

39%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)

61%

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.59 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Comuna Recea scores more

47%

level

23%

Universitatea Cluj scores more

30%

Comuna Recea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff