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Comuna Recea vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
10/3/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 6Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea52%
×Draw23%
U Craiova 194825%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comuna Recea
1.81
U Craiova 1948
1.19

Comuna Recea creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Comuna Recea
2.53
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Comuna Recea
1.13
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw
75%
Comuna Recea or U Craiova 1948
77%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
48%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+
29%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals
84%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
54%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
27%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
70%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
33%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
67%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Comuna Recea scores more
52%
level
23%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
25%

Comuna Recea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Comuna Recea 3–3 U Craiova 1948

Comuna Recea and U Craiova 1948 drew 3-3 in Liga II on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central Recea in Recea.