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Comuna Recea vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rapid
Rapid
9/26/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea52%
×Draw23%
Rapid25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comuna Recea
1.88
Rapid
1.25

Comuna Recea creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Comuna Recea
2.53
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

Comuna Recea
1.13
Rapid
1.24

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw
75%
Comuna Recea or Rapid
77%
Draw or Rapid
48%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+
29%
Rapid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals
85%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
56%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
29%
Rapid 1+ goals
71%
Rapid 2+ goals
36%
Rapid 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
67%
Rapid (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

Rapid attack 1.38 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Comuna Recea scores more
52%
level
23%
Rapid scores more
25%

Comuna Recea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comuna Recea vs Rapid

Comuna Recea beat Rapid 2-1 in Liga II on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central Recea in Recea.