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Comuna Recea vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga II 2018

Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
10/18/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea46%
×Draw24%
Petrolul Ploiesti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comuna Recea
1.73
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.35

Comuna Recea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Comuna Recea
2.53
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.57

allows per match

Comuna Recea
1.13
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.93

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw
70%
Comuna Recea or Petrolul Ploiesti
76%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
54%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals
82%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
52%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
74%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
39%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
61%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Comuna Recea scores more
46%
level
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
30%

Comuna Recea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comuna Recea vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Petrolul Ploiesti beat Comuna Recea 2-1 in Liga II on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central Recea in Recea.