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Comuna Recea vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
11/25/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea68%
×Draw18%
Pandurii TG JIU15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comuna Recea
2.43
Pandurii TG JIU
1.04

Comuna Recea creates 134% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Comuna Recea
2.53
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

Comuna Recea
1.13
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw
85%
Comuna Recea or Pandurii TG JIU
82%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
32%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+
45%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals
91%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
69%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
43%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
65%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
28%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
82%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.43

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Comuna Recea scores more
68%
level
18%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
15%

Comuna Recea at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comuna Recea vs Pandurii TG JIU

Comuna Recea beat Pandurii TG JIU 2-0 in Liga II on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central Recea in Recea.