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Comuna Recea vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
3/20/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 20Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea56%
×Draw22%
CSM Reşiţa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comuna Recea
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.17

Comuna Recea creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Comuna Recea
2.53
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Comuna Recea
1.13
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw
78%
Comuna Recea or CSM Reşiţa
78%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
44%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+
33%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals
86%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
59%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
32%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
69%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
33%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
72%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Comuna Recea scores more
56%
level
22%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
22%

Comuna Recea at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comuna Recea vs CSM Reşiţa

Comuna Recea beat CSM Reşiţa 6-0 in Liga II on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central Recea in Recea.