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Comuna Recea vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Comuna Recea
Comuna Recea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
8/29/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea54%
×Draw23%
Csikszereda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comuna Recea
1.84
Csikszereda
1.12

Comuna Recea creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Comuna Recea
2.53
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Comuna Recea
1.13
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw
77%
Comuna Recea or Csikszereda
77%
Draw or Csikszereda
46%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+
31%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals
84%
Comuna Recea 2+ goals
55%
Comuna Recea 3+ goals
28%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
67%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
31%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)
70%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Comuna Recea scores more
54%
level
23%
Csikszereda scores more
23%

Comuna Recea at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comuna Recea vs Csikszereda

Csikszereda beat Comuna Recea 1-0 in Liga II on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central Recea in Recea.