Comuna Recea 3–4 ACS Sirineasa: Result & Stats

Comuna Recea

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

ACS Sirineasa

9/12/2020

Liga II · Round 3Stadion Central Recea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Comuna Recea58%

×Draw21%

ACS Sirineasa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comuna ReceaExpected goals in this matchACS Sirineasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.12

Comuna Recea

2.04

ACS Sirineasa

1.12

Comuna Recea creates 82% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

2.53

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Comuna Recea

2.53

ACS Sirineasa

1.11

allows per match

Comuna Recea

1.13

ACS Sirineasa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comuna Recea+0.00on par

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comuna Recea ↓

ACS Sirineasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Comuna Recea or draw

80%

Comuna Recea or ACS Sirineasa

79%

Draw or ACS Sirineasa

42%

Winning margin

Comuna Recea wins by 2+

35%

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Comuna Recea 1+ goals

87%

Comuna Recea 2+ goals

60%

Comuna Recea 3+ goals

33%

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

67%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

31%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)

74%

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comuna Recea at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comuna Recea attack 2.53 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Comuna Recea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Comuna Recea scores more

58%

level

21%

ACS Sirineasa scores more

20%

Comuna Recea at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Comuna Recea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff