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Compostela vs Zamora — League #875 2026

Compostela
Compostela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zamora
Zamora
2/18/2023League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Compostela35%
×Draw30%
Zamora36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
1.05
Zamora
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Compostela
1.20
Zamora
1.00

allows per match

Compostela
1.15
Zamora
0.90

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
64%
Compostela or Zamora
70%
Draw or Zamora
65%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
13%
Zamora wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
65%
Compostela 2+ goals
28%
Compostela 3+ goals
9%
Zamora 1+ goals
66%
Zamora 2+ goals
29%
Zamora 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
49%
Zamora (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.20 + Zamora defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zamora attack 1.00 + Compostela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Compostela scores more
35%
level
30%
Zamora scores more
36%

Zamora at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Compostela 1–1 Zamora

Compostela and Zamora drew 1-1 in League #875 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.