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Compostela vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Compostela
Compostela
CANC
00:00
Pontellas
Pontellas
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Compostela71%
×Draw19%
Pontellas10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
2.09
Pontellas
0.64

Compostela creates 227% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Compostela
2.16
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Compostela
0.66
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
90%
Compostela or Pontellas
81%
Draw or Pontellas
29%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
46%
Pontellas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
88%
Compostela 2+ goals
62%
Compostela 3+ goals
34%
Pontellas 1+ goals
47%
Pontellas 2+ goals
14%
Pontellas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
87%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 32 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 2.16 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.09

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Compostela defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Compostela scores more
71%
level
19%
Pontellas scores more
10%

Compostela at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Compostela host Pontellas

April 26, 2020: Compostela take on Pontellas in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Compostela host Pontellas at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.