Compostela 1–0 Coruxo: Result & Stats | League #875

Compostela

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coruxo

Santi de Prado 31'

11/3/2024

League #875 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Compostela42%

×Draw28%

Coruxo30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CompostelaExpected goals in this matchCoruxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Compostela

1.27

Coruxo

1.02

Compostela creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

0.89

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Compostela

1.20

Coruxo

0.89

allows per match

Compostela

1.15

Coruxo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par

Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Coruxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Compostela or draw

70%

Compostela or Coruxo

72%

Draw or Coruxo

58%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+

19%

Coruxo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals

72%

Compostela 2+ goals

36%

Compostela 3+ goals

14%

Coruxo 1+ goals

64%

Coruxo 2+ goals

27%

Coruxo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)

59%

Coruxo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.20 + Coruxo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coruxo attack 0.89 + Compostela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Compostela scores more

42%

level

28%

Coruxo scores more

30%

Compostela at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Santi de Prado

46'

Dieguito← Álvaro Casas

60'

David Añón← Álex Pérez

60'

Y. Al Wateni← Hugo Rodríguez

69'

Gonzalo Landeira← Carlos Cinta

69'

Manu Barreiro← G. Bertino

73'

Álex Rey← Guido Fernández

73'

Dani Pereiro← Álvaro Fernández

80'

Yago Insua← B. Diabaté

85'

Samu← R. Selasi

90+2'

Óscar Gil← Fer Cano

Compostela

Coruxo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Anton Permuy

46'▲Dieguito←▼Álvaro Casas

69'▲Gonzalo Landeira←▼Carlos Cinta

69'▲Manu Barreiro←▼G. Bertino

85'▲Samu←▼R. Selasi

90+2'▲Óscar Gil←▼Fer Cano

Compostela substitutes

DieguitoLandeiraBarreiroSamuGilSotoDomínguez

Manager: David de Dios

60'▲David Añón←▼Álex Pérez

60'▲Y. Al Wateni←▼Hugo Rodríguez

73'▲Álex Rey←▼Guido Fernández

73'▲Dani Pereiro←▼Álvaro Fernández

80'▲Yago Insua←▼B. Diabaté

Coruxo substitutes

AñónWateniReyPereiroInsuaPenelaRuíz