Compostela 3–2 Coruxo: Result & Stats

Compostela

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Coruxo

Brais Abelenda 70'

J. Barros 45+2', 17'

Moha Chabboura 64'

Diego Silva 58'

1/31/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Compostela48%

×Draw28%

Coruxo24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CompostelaExpected goals in this matchCoruxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.89

Compostela

1.38

Coruxo

0.89

Compostela creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

1.08

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Compostela

1.08

Coruxo

0.78

allows per match

Compostela

1.00

Coruxo

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par

Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Coruxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Compostela or draw

76%

Compostela or Coruxo

72%

Draw or Coruxo

52%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+

23%

Coruxo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals

75%

Compostela 2+ goals

40%

Compostela 3+ goals

16%

Coruxo 1+ goals

59%

Coruxo 2+ goals

22%

Coruxo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)

67%

Coruxo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.08 + Coruxo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Coruxo attack 0.78 + Compostela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Compostela scores more

48%

level

28%

Coruxo scores more

24%

Compostela at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Barros

45+2'

J. Barros

53'

Pablo Salgueiro← Andriu

53'

Pedro Vázquez← Borja Yebra

54'

Moha Chabboura← José Rivera

58'

Diego Silva

61'

Hugo Sanmartín← J. Barros

61'

Roberto Baleato← Josiño

64'

Moha Chabboura

70'

Brais Abelenda

78'

Gabri Palmás← Miky Villar

78'

Álex Valiño← Álex Ares

90+1'

Samu Rodríguez← Bicho

Compostela

Coruxo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Barros

▼

Josiño

Manager: Yago Iglesias

61'▲Hugo Sanmartín←▼J. Barros

61'▲Roberto Baleato←▼Josiño

78'▲Gabri Palmás←▼Miky Villar

90+1'▲Samu Rodríguez←▼Bicho

Compostela substitutes

SanmartínBaleatoPalmásRodríguezCasasReyGarcíaVespriniPereira

Manager: Míchel Alonso

53'▲Pablo Salgueiro←▼Andriu

53'▲Pedro Vázquez←▼Borja Yebra

54'▲Moha Chabboura←▼José Rivera

78'▲Álex Valiño←▼Álex Ares

Coruxo substitutes

SalgueiroVázquezChabbouraValiñoAmigoVilaChansManuAlonso

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Compostela 3–2 Coruxo

Compostela beat Coruxo 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 31, 2021.

Goals: J. Barros (17', 45+2'), Diego Silva (58'), Moha Chabboura (64'), Brais Abelenda (70').

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.

Compostela vs Coruxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Compostela 3–2 Coruxo