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Compostela vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Compostela
Compostela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Choco
Choco
12/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Compostela61%
×Draw23%
Choco16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
1.79
Choco
0.79

Compostela creates 127% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 59 away

creates per match

Compostela
2.16
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Compostela
0.66
Choco
1.42

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
84%
Compostela or Choco
77%
Draw or Choco
39%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
35%
Choco wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
83%
Compostela 2+ goals
53%
Compostela 3+ goals
26%
Choco 1+ goals
55%
Choco 2+ goals
19%
Choco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
79%
Choco (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 32 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 2.16 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Choco attack 0.92 + Compostela defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Compostela scores more
61%
level
23%
Choco scores more
16%

Compostela at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Compostela 2–0 Choco

Compostela beat Choco 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.