Compostela 1–2 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Compostela

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Celta de Vigo II

Miky Villar 43'

Manu Justo 9', 5'

3/6/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Compostela37%

×Draw28%

Celta de Vigo II36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CompostelaExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.17

Compostela

1.19

Celta de Vigo II

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 120 away

1.08

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Compostela

1.08

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Compostela

1.00

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Compostela or draw

64%

Compostela or Celta de Vigo II

72%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

63%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+

15%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals

70%

Compostela 2+ goals

33%

Compostela 3+ goals

12%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

69%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

33%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)

51%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.08 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Compostela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Compostela scores more

37%

level

28%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

36%

Compostela at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Manu Justo

9'

Manu Justo

43'

Miky Villar

60'

Alberto Solís← Miguel Rodríguez

60'

Gabri Veiga← Barri

60'

K. Soni← Z. Josipovic

68'

Gabri Palmás← Josiño

76'

M. Vesprini← Samu Rodríguez

76'

Roberto Baleato← Saro Seoane

Compostela

Celta

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Yago Iglesias

68'▲Gabri Palmás←▼Josiño

76'▲M. Vesprini←▼Samu Rodríguez

76'▲Roberto Baleato←▼Saro Seoane

Compostela substitutes

PalmásVespriniBaleatoReyTorresRivasPereira

Manager: Onésimo

60'▲Alberto Solís←▼Miguel Rodríguez

60'▲Gabri Veiga←▼Barri

60'▲K. Soni←▼Z. Josipovic

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

SolísVeigaSoniFernándezBruninhoPampínLeónBlanco