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Compostela vs CD Lugo B — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Compostela
Compostela
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
10/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Compostela55%
×Draw24%
CD Lugo B21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
1.72
CD Lugo B
0.97

Compostela creates 77% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 94 away

creates per match

Compostela
2.16
CD Lugo B
1.28

allows per match

Compostela
0.66
CD Lugo B
1.27

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

CD Lugo B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
79%
Compostela or CD Lugo B
76%
Draw or CD Lugo B
45%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
30%
CD Lugo B wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
82%
Compostela 2+ goals
51%
Compostela 3+ goals
25%
CD Lugo B 1+ goals
62%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
25%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
72%
CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 32 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 2.16 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.72

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Compostela defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Compostela scores more
55%
level
24%
CD Lugo B scores more
21%

Compostela at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Compostela vs CD Lugo B

Compostela beat CD Lugo B 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.