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Compostela vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Compostela
Compostela
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Compostela65%
×Draw21%
Arzúa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
1.95
Arzúa
0.76

Compostela creates 157% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 79 away

creates per match

Compostela
2.16
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Compostela
0.66
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
86%
Compostela or Arzúa
79%
Draw or Arzúa
35%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
40%
Arzúa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
86%
Compostela 2+ goals
58%
Compostela 3+ goals
31%
Arzúa 1+ goals
53%
Arzúa 2+ goals
18%
Arzúa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
83%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 32 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 2.16 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.95

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Compostela defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Compostela scores more
65%
level
21%
Arzúa scores more
14%

Compostela at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Compostela 3–0 Arzúa

Compostela beat Arzúa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.