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Complutense vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Complutense39%
×Draw30%
Villanueva Pardillo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
1.14
Villanueva Pardillo
0.99

Complutense creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 50 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
69%
Complutense or Villanueva Pardillo
70%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
61%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
16%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
68%
Complutense 2+ goals
32%
Complutense 3+ goals
11%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
63%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
26%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
55%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Complutense scores more
39%
level
30%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
31%

Complutense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Complutense 4 – 1 Villanueva Pardillo

Complutense beat Villanueva Pardillo 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.