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Complutense vs Unión Adarve — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Complutense38%
×Draw28%
Unión Adarve34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
1.22
Unión Adarve
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
Unión Adarve
1.18

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
Unión Adarve
1.27

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

Unión Adarve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
66%
Complutense or Unión Adarve
72%
Draw or Unión Adarve
62%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
16%
Unión Adarve wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
70%
Complutense 2+ goals
34%
Complutense 3+ goals
12%
Unión Adarve 1+ goals
68%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
31%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
53%
Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Unión Adarve away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + Unión Adarve defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Unión Adarve attack 1.18 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Complutense scores more
38%
level
28%
Unión Adarve scores more
34%

Complutense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Complutense 1–0 Unión Adarve

Complutense beat Unión Adarve 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.